Giro d'Italia - First week

We could hardly have had more surprises this week! It was quite the treat, used as I am to the Grand Tours slouching lazily through a boring first ten stages and only picking up with the first climbs. Not this year. After the first individual time trial and no real mountains to speak of yet, all expected to find Wiggings in pink and Sky locking up the front of the group.

Instead, Nibali is in pink and Wiggo is behind by well over a minute, and last year's winner Hesjedal is struggling mightily as well. We've had three very wet stages that have significantly slowed down Wiggins. In the 7th stage (Marina di San Salvo - Pescara), Wiggins fell due to slippery road conditions with about 5 km to go. Fear and tension forced him into a slow ride into Pescara, while Nibali and Evans pushed on to gain a good 80-90 seconds in the GC.

The next day in the long (57km) individual time trial, Wiggins was expected to dominate, but he didn't, surely because of the remnants of the previous day's trauma, be it physical, psychological, or both. He still finished second overall in the ITT, but only got back 11" on Nibali and 29" on Evans, who held very well. Of all the possible predictions, few would have thought that Nibali could win pink in a time trial!

The young Sicilian climber then further consolidated his lead in the next semi-mountainous stage, where the group dropped Wiggins and Hesjedal and he rode into Florence to close out the first week with a 29" lead on Evans, 1'15" on Gesink, and 1'16" on Wiggins. This is an important lead after nine stages and before the mountains.

This will have important tactical repercussions when the big climbs do arrive. For one, Wiggins will be forced to attack, which currently seems unlikely since he can't even keep pace: if any rider ever needed the rest day, it's him. Also, Sky Team won't be able to shut down the race into a front-group domination as they did at last year's Tour, which will open the door to more spectacular stages where non-GC runaway leaders have genuine fighting chances; I, for one, would love to see Evans be Evans, or even a last hurrah from that sly old dog Garzelli. Third, Astana will have pick up the slack and protect their captain Nibali against Wiggo and his teammates, which will be interesting because, in my opinion, Astana is a weaker team than Sky in the final analysis. As usual, indeterminacy makes a Grand Tour good.

The Giro's second week is absolutely exciting. Here's the road map of what lies ahead:

• Tuesday we start right off with a 1st category KOM arrival at Montasio, in the mountainous region of Friuli. This is the first high mountains stage of the Giro, and it comes right after the rest day, so it will be a meaningful test for Wiggins and Sky. Stage profile.

• Wednesday we ride higher up into Friuli. This will be an emotional stage for Italians due to the arrival on the very site of the 1963 Vajont Dam disaster. The final 2nd category KOM may also create some surprises. Stage profile.

• After two finishes for the sprinters, on Saturday we're back in the high mountains in Bardonecchia, after climbing up the Sestriere early in the stage, though on the less demanding face. Stage profile.

• Finally, on Sunday the Giro arrives at the infamous Col du Galibier, climbing its north face via the Col du Telegraph. That is a typical route in the Tour de France, and this is the very first time that it will be in the Giro. It's exciting to see what will transpire here. Stage profile.

Much of the Giro will be decided in the second week, even though the final three stages in the third week are also killer: a climbing time trial and two 1st category mountain arrivals. Still, if Wiggins doesn't switch back into his usual gear, and still assuming that Evans is too old to be competitive, Nibali may well seal the Giro victory during the second week.

Check out the best photos of the Giro so far (Sirotti/RCS)
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