Men's and Women's Top 10 Tennis Rankings in 2020

How will the ATP and WTA singles rankings look like five years from now? Tennis is unpredictable and its careers short, especially on the women's side, so I only feel confident projecting into the very near future. Still, I am fairly sure that these estimates are at least approximately correct. The players' ages given below are for 2020.

WTA TOP 10 IN 2020

1. SIMONA HALEP (Romania, 28 years old. Current rank: #4)

2. GENIE BOUCHARD (Canada, 26. Current rank: #6)

3. MARIA SHARAPOVA (Russia, 33. Current rank: #3)

4. PETRA KVITOVA (Czech Republic, 30. Current rank: #2)

5. VICTORIA AZARENKA (Belarus, 30. Current rank: #27)*

6. MADISON KEYS (USA, 25. Current rank: #16)

7. GARBINE MUGURUZA (Spain, 26. Current rank: #20)

8. ANA IVANOVIC (Serbia, 30. Current rank: #7)

9. CAROLINE WOZNIACKI (Denmark, 29. Current rank: #5)

10. ELINA SVITOLINA (Russia, 25. Current rank: #21)

* = Azarenka's rank is affected by a lengthy injury in 2014, prior to which she was ranked #3.

Many up-and-coming players are excluded from this projection, either because they matured late and may be too old to make an impact in 2020 (e.g., Bacsinszky, Suarez-Navarro, Makarova) or because they're so young that their career path is unpredictable (e.g., Bencic, Garcia). Plus, there is always the possibility of a brand new star emerging in, say, 2018 and quickly making it to the top... though that has become less likely than in the past, when people like Williams, Hingis, and Sharapova herself sprung up pretty much overnight.

ATP TOP 10 IN 2020

1. GRIGOR DIMITROV (Bulgaria, 29 years old. Current rank: #11)

2. KEI NISHIKORI (Japan, 30. Current rank: #5)

3. MILOS RAONIC (Canada, 29. Current rank: #6)

4. NOVAK DJOKOVIC (Serbia, 33. Current rank: #1)

5. BORNA CORIC (Croatia, 23. Current rank: #46)

6. NICK KYRGIOS (Australia, 25. Current rank: #30)

7. DOMINIC THIEM (Austria, 26. Current rank: #31)

8. JACK SOCK (USA, 27. Current rank: #37)

9. DAVID GOFFIN (Belgium, 29. Current rank: #18)

10. ANDY MURRAY (Great Britain, 33. Current rank: #3)

Same qualifications apply as for the women: late bloomers like Lopez and Wawrinka, rising young stars, etc. Unlike for the women, though, here I've included a couple of current teenagers. A player's trajectory among the pros is a bit more predictable for the men than for the women, just as men's tennis is generally less prone to upsets and surprises. Coric is showing the same talent and skill set that Djokovic did as his age, so that's promising. Dimitrov is also following Nole's career, from the early promise of greatness to a somewhat delayed emergence into the top 10 -- but according to most, myself included, he is the only young-ish player to have the numbers to make it to #1 and win a few Majors. Finally, Kyrgios's success depends entirely on his ability to mature emotionally, which right now is a big "if." Fellow Aussie youngsters like Tomic and Kokkinakis could also rise to the top 10, but in my view they stand one notch below Kyrgios.

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