group analysis
I have already written about this and not much has changed, so I will
mostly repeat myself here.
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The hosts have been
relatively lucky, though there are no dead weights in this group. More
importantly, Croatia, Mexico, and Cameroon are all at more or less the same
level, and in few groups will the second spot be so hotly contested. Also,
Brazil should beware of racking up three lopsided wins and become overconfident
going into the R16, when the real World Cup begins.
Projection:
BRAZIL and CROATIA
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The first Group of Death,
for Australia anyway: the Socceroos are practically out, while Spain,
Netherlands, and Chile will fight for it. This group has both finalists from
the latest edition: Netherlands and holders Spain. This also happened in
2010, when Italy and France were in the same group, and both went out in the
group stage. I don’t see that happening to Spain, but the Oranje? Why not. In
my view Chile have a leg up. This will be a lot of fun to watch.
Projection:
SPAIN and CHILE
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One of two easiest groups,
though this one too will be interesting due to the four teams being roughly
even. I give a slight edge to Colombia and Ivory Coast, but Japan’s fizz and
Greece’s bus-parking abilities ought not to be underestimated.
Projection:
COLOMBIA and IVORY COAST
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The second Group of Death
and the only one with three previous World Cup winners! So much
football history. These three have met recently in major
tourneys (Euro 2012 and Confeds 2013) too: Italy have always prevailed, but on penalties after very close matches. However, I trust Italy’s historic
ability to play better against their equals than against their inferiors, and
the very weak English roster should prove fatal to them.
Projection: URUGUAY and ITALY
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The easiest group by
popular consensus, so the French have scored big. Of course, France are
themselves very weak lately, and I think that no amount of last-minute good
luck will change that. Still, given the field, they ought to pass. Also, I
think that Switzerland will surprise. While they’re no Belgium, they are
slowly rising as a new force of European football. Let me put it this way:
for the first time, Switzerland at their best should prove equal or better
than France at their best.
Projection:
FRANCE and SWITZERLAND
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Argentina got lucky, as
they had been the last few times around too, and always cruised; as usual,
their problems come later. Bosnia and Nigeria will contend the second spot,
and frankly I think that much will depend on the Bosnians. They are a young
team with extremely promising talents, and if they’re in the mood they can do
great. As a Roma fan, in Pjanic I trust! Iran are glad to be here (and they
should be proud: great new team, but far too inexperienced to succeed).
Projection:
ARGENTINA and BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
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The third Group of Death,
and in my view this is the real killer. Unlike in B and D,
here there are no cushion teams and all four have a genuine shot. Surely the
USA look weakest on paper, but I would not discount Klinsmann and an overall
experienced team. Conversely, Ghana do not look as good as they used to, but neither does Portugal I mean Ronaldo. With the exception of Germany, this one is up
for grabs.
Projection,
based on prudence: GERMANY and PORTUGAL
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Belgium were lucky in the
draw, and I am glad, because they deserve to be in the knockout rounds and we deserve to see them play at
the highest level. I think they are not a fluke, and they remain my Euro 2016
favorites. Russia are the obvious candidate for the second spot, but watch
out for the ever-resourceful Koreans, who while not as brilliant as one might
have predicted 12 years ago, they are still dangerous.
Projection:
BELGIUM and RUSSIA
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odds analysis
(Data from Odds Checker). Bookies agree that Brazil are the clear
favorite for the final victory at 3/1, closely followed by Argentina at
around 4.5/1. A little too closely, perhaps, so there may be a little wishful
thinking that we get to see a Brazil-Argentina final—I’ll admit I wish that
too!. Germany and Spain sit together at around 6/1 or 7/1. These four are way
ahead of the pack and might well reach the semis; all do in my bracket below.
If so, it would be an epic Europe vs. Latin America showdown comprising the
best of the last 12-16 years of world football.
The next four sit closely together: Belgium
(18-20/1) slightly ahead of France (22/1), Uruguay (26/1), and Italy (26/1).
I do not understand what bookies see in les
bleus, an inexperienced and disjointed team. I basically agree with the
other odds, though perhaps everyone is being a little generous with Belgium;
more about this in the team analysis.
What lowers the odds so much for Italy and
Uruguay is they cannot reach the semifinals without defeating either Brazil
or Spain. As concerns the rosters, they are not five times lesser than those teams, but of course odds assess
the likelihood of winning, not the worth of the team.
The next four to have a realistic chance are England,
Portugal, Colombia, and the Netherlands, and I use “realistic” loosely. All
the others will be lucky to make it out of the group stage. Honduras, Costa
Rica, Iran, and Algeria trail far behind as the standard “cushion teams.”
It makes no sense to offer my own odds given
the general agreement among the experts, of which I am not one. If I were to
name the eight quarterfinalists, I too would pick those eight: Brazil,
Argentina, Germany, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, and Italy. I find this
to be a far more sensible exercise than calling the Cup winner: at that
stage, luck and circumstance begin to play a big role. It is also a big
accomplishment to reach the quarters, and a lot of teams will call their
World Cup campaign a success if they get that far.
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top squads analysis
Some of these squads are definitive (23 players) while others are merely provisional (30 players, with 7 to be removed later after training camp: Ian Darke says "that should be illegal," and I agree).
Graphics
taken from Eurosport, translated, and prettied-up.
I am shocked by the exclusion of Tevez, this year’s Serie A top scorer. Argentina could use the goals: Kun has been in regrettable form and Messi tends to choke in big events. I want the Argentines to do well because Messi needs World Cup success to cement his reputation as the third-greatest of all time. Ideal starting 11: Romero; Fernandez, Zabaleta, Campagnaro, Demichelis; Mascherano, Di Maria, Rodriguez; Aguero, Messi, Lavezzi.
A generation of young prodigies, but maybe too young, which is why many commentators eye Euro 2016 as their true goal. But much can change in two years, so they will want to strike while the iron is hot. Plus, there’s enough international experience among the veterans, especially in the back. Ideal starting 11: Mignolet; Vanden Borre, Kompany, van Buyten; Fellaini, Dembele, Witsel, Hazard; Lukaku, Mertens, Mirallas.
The
usual refrain is that “Brazil can only lose.” That’s even truer this year. Their
football is not what it used to be: I think it’s better. With only one star
striker, a solid defense, and an intelligent midfield, this is the best Seleçao
in years, and the home field advantage cannot hurt either. Ideal starting 11: Julio Cesar; Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, David
Luiz, Dante; Ramires, Oscar, Gustavo, Hernanes; Neymar, Hulk.
England
are like Argentina: big teams, small results. Except this is not a big team
either, with an underwhelming roster and only one in-form striker (but very
young). And given England’s group, I would not be surprised by a first-round
exit. Would it have hurt to bring veterans like Cole and Terry to strengthen
this loose bunch? Ideal starting 11: Hart;
Cahill, Jagielka, Johnson; Barkley, Gerrard, Lampard, Milner, Sterling; Rooney,
Sturridge.
Always
a question mark. This year’s roster is even weaker than usual, though many of
them are untested youths who could pull off a surprising performance. As it is,
I predict (against some of the odds) that France will not advance past the round
of 16, if they’re lucky to get that far. Ideal
starting 11: Lloris; Debuchy, Koscielny, Evra; Cabaye,
Pogba, Matuidi, Valbuena; Benzema, Ribery, Giroud.
Germany
have not won a World Cup since 1990 and have failed to reach the final in all
but one occasion since, despite always being the heavy favorites. While
slightly less impressive than in past years, this is still a highly respectable
roster that can beat anyone. No surprise exclusions. Ideal starting 11: Neuer; Boateng, Lahm, Mertesacker; Ozil,
Khedira, Kroos, Schweinsteiger; Schurrle, Gotze, Reus.
While I generally agree with
Prandelli’s philosophy of “out with the old,” I would have brought in-form
veterans like Gilardino and Totti. The exclusion of Florenzi and Osvaldo is also
hard to understand, especially with this paucity of strikers. With that said,
Prandelli’s Italy rarely lose, and they have excelled at Euro 2012 and at the
2013 Confederations Cup, so some trust is warranted. Ideal starting 11: Buffon;
Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini; Aquilani, De Rossi, Pirlo, Montolivo; Cassano,
Balotelli, Rossi (or Destro, depending on form).
I have nothing to say about
Portugal, except: Ideal starting 11: Ronaldo;
Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldo; Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldo; Ronaldo,
Ronaldo. Actual starting 11: Beto;
Coentrao, Neto, Pepe; Veloso, Meireles, Carvalho, Moutinho; Ronaldo, Almeida,
Postiga.
It is fashionable to say that
Spain are “through” because other teams have figured them out. That’s an
exaggeration. They are slightly more beatable, and they’re older, but this is
still by far the best roster at this
World Cup, and the machine is still well oiled. I agree with the odds that they
are the most likely non-American team to win. Ideal starting 11: Casillas; Juanfran, Ramos, Pique; Alonso,
Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas, Silva; Costa, Villa.
One of my favorites to watch,
Tabarez’s team embodies Argentina’s brilliance and Italy’s resourcefulness. There
is no weak spot to this formation and the star strikers have enjoyed the best
season of their careers. But a tough draw and either Spain or Brasil at the
quarterfinals stage will make a final run very unlikely. Ideal starting 11: Muslera;
Lugano, Godin, Maxi Pereira; Gargano, Gonzalez, Silva, Rodriguez; Cavani,
Suarez, Forlan.
bracket
Just for
fun. And yes, I will put money on this. ;-)
