2014 Champions League semifinals: analysis and predictions

ATLÉTICO MADRID – CHELSEA

The rematch of the 2012 European Super Cup between the winners of the 2012-2013 Europa League and Champions League. Atlético routed Chelsea 4-1 then, which matters only relatively since the ESC is basically a summer exhibition match. The only other previous matchups are from the 2008-2009 Champions League group stage: 4-0 to Chelsea in London and 2-2 in Madrid. In short, there hasn’t been enough to predict an outcome. Based on this season alone, this looks to be a very tough matchup for both teams. Atlético are one of Europe’s better offenses and toughest midfields. Chelsea are an astute football machine engineered to take on opponents with higher pace and quality. Simeone is full of power and aggression; Mourinho is a tactical master. If Costa and Hazard heal in time, the midfield battle will be epic. Other than that, it could go either way. I hope Chelsea because I’m a fan, but as a bookie I would recommend Atlético. They have better shape and confidence overall. Chelsea’s only advantage is playing the second leg at home: while not as intimidating as the Vicente Calderon, Stamford Bridge can be a pretty daunting place to play in (“Champions of Europe, we’ve done it before!”).

Atlético-Chelsea, 1st leg – Tuesday, April 22nd – Madrid, 20:45 CET (2:45 p.m. ET-US: Fox Sports 1)

Chelsea-Atlético, 2nd leg – Wednesday, April 30th – London, 19:45 GMT (2:45 p.m. ET-US: Fox Sports 1)

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REAL MADRID – BAYERN MUNICH

A rematch of the 2012 semifinal, won by Bayern in Madrid after penalty kicks (they would go on to lose to Chelsea their second straight final). That was but the last in a long list of meetings between the two. Bayern now leads 8-5 in wins, with only one draw in 2004. All meetings have taken place in the Champions League, including three semifinals before this one (Bayern is 2-1 in semis). As for the current season, Bayern are at the top of their game, even above last year when they seemed to dominate. While they have struggled a little at Old Trafford, in my view Guardiola’s men are still Europe’s best overall team and should prove no match for Real’s aging and too often inattentive defense. I predict a fairly comfortable Bayern victory, especially since the return leg is played at Allianz.

Real-Bayern, 1st leg – Wednesday, April 23rd – Madrid, 20:45 CET (2:45 p.m. ET-US: Fox Sports 1)

Bayern-Real, 2nd leg – Tuesday, April 29th – Munich, 20:45 CET (2:45 p.m. ET-US: Fox Sports 1)

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