Champions League round of 16 qualification scenarios

Five match days down, one to go. With one game left, most teams still have a shot, and thankfully no groups are already completely decided, so it should be fun to follow. Groups A-D play on December 10 and groups F-H play on December 11. Below is the group-by-group analysis. Standings and pictures from UEFA.

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Matchday 6: Sociedad-Leverkusen, Manchester-Donetsk. United are already through and Real are already out from everything. Shakhtar control their own fate, but it will be hard to pull off more than a point at Old Trafford. So Bayer has a golden chance. Two possible ties. If Shakhtar and Bayer both end up with 8 points, Bayer advance (4-0, 0-0 against Shakhtar) and Shakhtar are in the Europa League. If Shakhtar and Man Utd both end up with 11 points, Shakhtar win the group, Man Utd advance as second (previous meeting was 0-0), and Bayer are in the Europa League.

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Matchday 6: Kobenhavn-Real, Galatasaray-Juventus. Real are through. Kobenhavn are out of the CL but still running for a Europa spot. Between Juventus and Galatasaray, the Italians have it easier. If Gala win, they advance no matter what Kobenhavn does (goal difference in previous meetings: 3-1, 0-1). In that case, Kobenhavn will go to Europa with a win, and forfeit that to Juve with a draw or loss. If Juve win or draw in Istanbul, they advance even if Kobenhavn win (1-1, 3-1 against them previously). Should both Galatasaray and Kobenhavn lose, Gala will take the Europa spot by the same criterion as above (goal difference). This is one of three groups (with E and H) where the two teams who can still advance to the R16 square off directly on the final day, so it will be exciting.

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Matchday 6: Olympiacos-Anderlecht, Benfica-PSG. Olympiacos and Benfica will battle at a distance as they both host teams that have nothing to say. Should they both win, both draw, or both lose, Olympiacos will advance (1-1, 1-0 in previous meetings) and Benfica will go to the Europa League. This is among the simplest groups, as no other ties are possible.

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Matchday 6: Plzen-CSKA, Bayern-City. Despite the very uneven group, not all is already said and done. The Europa league spot is still open, and City and Bayern can still contest the top spot. The tiebreakers are somewhat complex, as usual. Group winner race. If City beat Bayern, top spot will be determined by goal difference between them. Bayern won their previous game 1-3, so currently Bayern +2 and City -2, so City advance as first if they win by 3+ goals and as second if they lose, draw, or win by 1 goal. If City win by 2 goals, whoever will have scored the most goals advances as first: City with a win of at least 2-4 and Bayern otherwise. Should City win exactly 1-3, goals scored will fail to break (as both wins will have been with the same score) and so will most away goals (as both wins will have been away). In that case, Bayern advances as first on overall group goal difference, which will be +11 versus +9 for Man City. Europa League race. CSKA beat Viktoria 3-2, so Viktoria's only chance now is to beat CSKA by 2+ goals and advance by goal difference. If they beat them by 1 goal and score fewer than 3 (either 2-1 or 1-0), CSKA still advances on most goals scored. If they beat them exactly 3-2, CSKA advance on overall group goal difference, which will be -9 to -11... ironically the same numbers as Bayern and Man City, but in reverse!

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Matchday 6: Chelsea-Steaua, Schalke-Basel. Chelsea are through, though not necessarily as first, and Steaua are out from everything. The cutthroat game to watch is of course Schalke-Basel. If Schalke win and Chelsea draw, Chelsea are first on points (twice 3-0 to Schalke), Schalke advance as second, and Basel go to Europa. If Chelsea lose and Schalke-Basel draw, Basel are first on points (2-1, 1-0 to Chelsea), Chelsea advance as second, and Schalke go to Europa. Finally, if Basel win there are no possible ties: they advance as second with a Chelsea win and as first with a Chelsea loss or draw, and either way Schalke go to Europa.

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Matchday 6: Napoli-Arsenal, Marseille-Borussia. This group is complex. Napoli hope that Borussia either lose (Napoli advance with a win or a draw) or draw (Napoli advance with a win), which will send the Italians to the CL R16 and the Germans to Europa. Instead, if Borussia and Napoli both draw or both lose, Borussia advance on goal difference between them (lost 1-2 but won 3-1) and Napoli goes to Europa. And if both Borussia and Napoli win, there will be a three-way tie at the top! In that case, the second possible tiebreaker is assured to break it. As Marseille are already out, the list below assumes that the team that fails to advance among these three will clinch the Europa spot:

• Higher points among tied teams. This will fail to break the tie: Napoli 6, Arsenal 6, Borussia 6.
• Goal difference among tied teams. Currently it is Arsenal +2, Borussia +1, Napoli -3. Borussia's game against Marseille does not count, so they stay at +1. The size of Napoli's win against Arsenal matters.
• If Napoli win by 3+ goals: Borussia and Napoli advance: Borussia +1, Napoli ≥0, Arsenal ≤-1.
• If Napoli win by 2 goals: Arsenal and Borussia advance: Borussia +1, Arsenal 0, Napoli -1.
• If Napoli win by 1 goal: Arsenal and Borussia advance: Borussia +1, Arsenal +1, Napoli -2.
• In this scenario, Borussia advance as first for having scored more away goals (1-2 win in London, vs. Arsenal's 0-1 win in Dortmund) and Arsenal advance as second.

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Matchday 6: Atletico-Porto, Austria-Zenit. Porto and Zenit are still running and both play away to teams that are already done. One possible tie happens if Zenit lose and Porto draw. In that case, Zenit advance on higher points and Porto go to Europa, as Zenit beat Porto once and drew the other. Austria Wien is out of the Europa as well, because even if they win and Porto lose, Porto beat them once and drew the other. So, at worst, the loser of the R16 race between Porto and Zenit is still guaranteed a spot in the Europa.

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Matchday 6: Milan-Ajax, Barcelona-Celtic. Barcelona are through and Celtic are out; the rest is open. As Barcelona are expected to dispose of the Scots, whoever wins between Milan and Ajax advances; or, if they draw, Milan advance. The only possible tie is if Ajax beat Milan and Barcelona lose to Celtic. In that case, Barcelona advance as first (beat Ajax 4-0 and lost 1-2). Barcelona can only advance as second in the group by losing to Celtic and if Milan defeat Ajax. Needless to say, since Celtic are already out, whoever loses the R16 race between Milan and Ajax is guaranteed to clinch the Europa League spot.

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Mou's face is always relevant, so there.